Inflation and Interest Rates Simplified From The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement

Two major topics discussed in the Reserve Banks 39-page September Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) are inflation and interest rates. In June, the Bank forecasted inflation to be 4.5% this year. The latest forecast from the Bank expects inflation to be 0.7% lower at 3.8%. Additionally, the Banks 2011 inflation forecast has been reduced from 2.9% to 2.4%.

The lower inflation forecasts are not out of the blue given the lower economic growth projections announced by the Reserve Bank. Factors attributable to the muted inflation pressures include: weaker consumer demand, basically non-existent lending growth, unemployment figures at over 5%, reductions in house prices and deleveraging.

The Bank stated that it will look through the impact on inflation as a result of the increase in GST, the Emissions Trading Scheme, plus other related tax changes. The Bank forecasts that an additional 2.7% will be added to inflation as a result of these former factors, with the Consumer Price Index crowning at 4.8% in June 2011. Taking aside these factors, the underlying inflation rate would be 2.1%.

It is important to note the following stern warning delivered by the Bank in the September MPS. If the factors mentioned above begin to influence individuals behaviour, then the Bank will move quickly to increase interest rates. Price setting will be monitored, as will wage negotiations and surveys of inflationary expectations to gauge if there is evidence that the bump in inflation is becoming ingrained. If this is the case, it can be expected that fast and material increases in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will follow.

Regarding interest rates, the theme is the same as with economic growth and inflation lower for longer. Unlike the June MPS, the Bank now expects interest rates to rise a lot more slowly. This links back to the Banks cuts to GDP and inflation estimates. The June MPS forecasted interest rates to rise 3.1 % over the next two years, up from the then current level of 3.0% to 6.1% by the end of 2012.

According to the September MPS, the Bank now estimates interest rates to rise by only half as much. 90-day bank bills are forecast to increase from their current 3.2% to be 4.1% in December 2011 an increase of just 1.4%.

If you have a floating mortgage, this reduction in the increase of estimated interest rates will be good news. Although, as the Bank does point out in the September MPS, it expects to increase the OCR over the next few years, the pace and extent of these increases will be lower than forecast in the June MPS.

Bank job opportunities in the government sector banks of India

Regarding public sector jobs
The financial sector of India has sizable openings for the educated and talented masses of youth of the nation. Bank exams are conducted on huge scales in almost all the major towns and cities of the nation on fixed dates, mostly on holidays. Bank jobs in India are very secure jobs with high pay scales and benefits. The candidates can prepare for the competitive bank recruitment exams from the previous years solved bank exam question papers. These exams are golden opportunities for the educated and aspiring youth of the nation to get a prestigious job in the financial sector of India. >

Recruitment rounds and question paper pattern
There are usually two recruitment rounds for public sector banks, the written test and the personal interview (PI) round. Sometimes the PI round is preceded by a group discussion (GD) round. The written recruitment question paper is usually objective and multiple choice question type. There are four choices for each correct answer. That is the reason why there is negative marking for each wrong answer. In the exam for recruitment of probationary officers (PO) a second descriptive or subjective paper is conducted after the first paper. General awareness, math, English, logical reasoning and quantitative aptitude are the various sections of the question paper. All these sections carry equal marks.

Exam preparation
All sections of the question paper must be studied with equal importance and all the recruitment rounds must be prepared with equal emphasis, in order to qualify for the banking positions. These recruitment exams are conducted to fill up the positions of probationary officers and clerks. The candidates can prepare from the previous year’s solved sample papers in order to get an idea of the question paper pattern, every year, in the banking recruitment exams. There are numerous reputed institutes which train up the aspiring candidates to succeed in their recruitment tests. The candidates can also study at these coaching centres.

Application and eligibility
The candidate should be a graduate in any discipline, in order to appear for the bank exams, under the public sector of India. Bank exam question papers are available on the web sites of the exam councils. The candidates can prepare from these sample papers for bank jobs. The application form should be filled up in details by the candidate and mailed on the official address of the exam board. Admit cards are mailed on e-mailed at the addresses or e-mail in-boxes of the candidates. The candidates should never miss any important date related to the exams.

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