FOREX Day Trading – The Dangers of Curve Fitting

In Forex day trading you see many systems that have fantastic track records in back testing, yet they can never match this performance in real time and the trader wipes out his equity.

The reason for this is the concept of curve fitting – if you don’t understand its significance you will lose.

Many traders buy hypothetical track records, or devise their own by running their signals over past data and any track record in day trading is curve fitted.

Why?

Day trading by its very nature doesn’t work.

You never get a real time track record of profits, so any track record has to be curve fitted to make a profit.

So what is curve fitting?

It means fitting the trading signals to the data ( you can of course do this on past data as you know the closing prices ) and making sure that the track record is profitable.

It’s very similar to shooting at a barn door and then drawing a cirlce around each one, after the shots are fired to amek them all bulls eyes.

Of course bending the system to fit the data doesn’t work and profitability is simply an illusion.

Examples of curve fitted systems are

Ones with lots of rules and parameters, or unique rules and parameters for different trading conditions, or contracts.

If you curve fit a system, be it in day trading or long term trend following, it will lose.

No reliable data

Day traders have to curve fit in hindsight to make a profit, as in real time volatility is random and its impossible to predict price direction.

To make money in any form of trading you need to play the odds and you can’t do that in day trading.

When you buy one of those enticing day trading systems offering you 100% profits or 70% success rates ask for the real time track record and you won’t get one.

The one presented to you is hypothetical and done knowing the closing prices and has been curve fitted.

Try and trade any day trading system from a vendor in real time and you can kiss goodbye to your account equity. Don’t fall for the hype of day trading systems see the reality, which is a sure fire way to lose all your money quickly.

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My Online Business Strategy Helps You Avoid the Dangers and Traps of Internet Marketing

There’s a lot to be said for knowing the possible pitfalls before embarking on any journey and “My Online Business Strategy” (MOBS) is a successful blue print that allows you to feel comfortable in the knowledge that you can avoid and overcome them.

Let’s just take a look at some of the dangers and traps:

* A hyped up product, system or strategy which doesn’t delivery on its promises. Often these are pitched in such a way to win over an audience of would be punters so that they buy.
* Material presented in vast quantities without covering all the required information.
* The quantity is large enough so that after the purchaser has consumed it all and realizes that he or she cannot make money the original seller is not marketing the product any longer and can offer little or no assistance.
* Information overload – here the vastness and the variety of information provided makes the purchaser feel overwhelmed and they then blame themselves for not being able to commit the time and effort needed and therefore give up.
* Many people have been in the position of giving up – some even go through the same loop over and over with different products. The desire is so great that people are blinded by the repeated failings.

Here’s how, “My Online Business Strategy” helps you overcome and avoid all this:

* It is not hyped up. It is down to earth. “My Online Business Strategy” points out that you will not become a millionaire overnight and that you will have to work at it.
* The material was not created to sell. This material is the process that Gary Gregory uses to build his own sites. These sites make him over $100,000 per year.
* “MOBS” leaves nothing out whilst ensuring that you are led by the hand. This prevents information overload.
* “My Online Business Strategy” provides toll free live support should you fall into difficulties. This is surely absolute proof that the detail is present without being overwhelming. “My Online Business Strategy” could not offer this level of support if it was anything other than a complete easy to use blue print for online success.

The Dangers of Insider Trading

An insider is one who has information about a company and makes a trade based on privileged information. This undermines the faith people have in the market and harms investors who do not have access to the same information.

Information is the value of the stock and it is illegal to trade if you have non-public information affecting a stock’s price or value. Insider trading penalizes the general trading public who speculate on trending company information without actual knowledge. For example if you, as an officer of the company, knew that a new product would revolutionize the industry and drive your company’s stock prices up, and you bought up as many shares as you could before the public offering, you would be guilty of insider trading.

Illegal actions come into play when buying or selling a security while in the possession of non-public information or material about the stock or security. This includes trading by those who have a relationship of trust. The SEC has prosecuted insider trading cases against corporate officers, employees and directors who traded the company’ securities after they learned about significant developments. Friends and business associates of these officers and directors have had lawsuits brought against them for information given by those in a position of trust. If you are an employee of a law, banking or brokerage firm who was given company information and you traded on that information, you have just broken the law.

Insider trading destabilizes investor assurance in the integrity and fairness of the securities markets. Agents for the SEC consider discovery and prosecution of insider trading abuses as part of their high enforcement priorities. Investors must be highly conscious of the hazards in trading on tips from employees or officers who know private information about a company. If you are considering trading on inside information, know that this act carries severe civil and criminal penalties. Prison time is an option and fines that might just bankrupt you can be levied.

Insider trading can also be legal. It is legal when corporate officers, directors, shareholders or employees buy and sell stock within their own companies. They do report their trades to the SEC and this information is used to identify companies with high investment potential. The premise: if insiders are buying stock in their own company they must know their company is growing upwards.

You can trade in good confidence using insider tips or information if you can provide proof that the information you received had no bearing on your decision to trade and your trade was made in good faith. However, do be aware that the burden of proof is on your shoulders and could be very difficult to verify. Keep good records of every conversation you have with brokers. Document tips and where they came from and when you received them.

If a regulatory officer contacts your concerning your trades, hire a securities lawyer before you ever speak to regulators. Gather all your records and be ready to justify your insider trades.