Inflation and Interest Rates Simplified From The Reserve Bank’s Monetary Policy Statement

Two major topics discussed in the Reserve Banks 39-page September Monetary Policy Statement (MPS) are inflation and interest rates. In June, the Bank forecasted inflation to be 4.5% this year. The latest forecast from the Bank expects inflation to be 0.7% lower at 3.8%. Additionally, the Banks 2011 inflation forecast has been reduced from 2.9% to 2.4%.

The lower inflation forecasts are not out of the blue given the lower economic growth projections announced by the Reserve Bank. Factors attributable to the muted inflation pressures include: weaker consumer demand, basically non-existent lending growth, unemployment figures at over 5%, reductions in house prices and deleveraging.

The Bank stated that it will look through the impact on inflation as a result of the increase in GST, the Emissions Trading Scheme, plus other related tax changes. The Bank forecasts that an additional 2.7% will be added to inflation as a result of these former factors, with the Consumer Price Index crowning at 4.8% in June 2011. Taking aside these factors, the underlying inflation rate would be 2.1%.

It is important to note the following stern warning delivered by the Bank in the September MPS. If the factors mentioned above begin to influence individuals behaviour, then the Bank will move quickly to increase interest rates. Price setting will be monitored, as will wage negotiations and surveys of inflationary expectations to gauge if there is evidence that the bump in inflation is becoming ingrained. If this is the case, it can be expected that fast and material increases in the Official Cash Rate (OCR) will follow.

Regarding interest rates, the theme is the same as with economic growth and inflation lower for longer. Unlike the June MPS, the Bank now expects interest rates to rise a lot more slowly. This links back to the Banks cuts to GDP and inflation estimates. The June MPS forecasted interest rates to rise 3.1 % over the next two years, up from the then current level of 3.0% to 6.1% by the end of 2012.

According to the September MPS, the Bank now estimates interest rates to rise by only half as much. 90-day bank bills are forecast to increase from their current 3.2% to be 4.1% in December 2011 an increase of just 1.4%.

If you have a floating mortgage, this reduction in the increase of estimated interest rates will be good news. Although, as the Bank does point out in the September MPS, it expects to increase the OCR over the next few years, the pace and extent of these increases will be lower than forecast in the June MPS.

Will Interest Rates on Direct Loans Rise in the Future

As the interest rate on federal student loans has seen an increase in the past year (starting on July 1, 2014) some are worried that the rise in Direct Loans is going to cause a problem. In the 2013-14 school year, Direct Loans saw a record low in interest rates at just 3.86 percent for undergraduate students and 5.41 percent for graduate students.

For the 2014-15 school year, however, these numbers have rise and now Direct Loans carry a 4.66 percent interest rate for undergraduates and 6.21 percent for graduates. That doesn’t seem like such a large increase, but why is it such a concern.

Some economists believe that instead of trying to raise the interest rate in order to collect more money from the students that are borrowing on these Direct Loans that the interest should be dropped below it’s record point in 2013-14. They have explained that dropping the interest rate even lower will result in lower monthly payments, thus avoiding defaults and delinquencies, which has become a large problem in the United States.

With the student loan debt now topping over $1 trillion in America, there may be a point to that. If every student is able to pay the extra $2 to $3 per month that will result in this interest rate on time, then it will only make a small dent into the national debt. If dropping the interest rate in half would result in saving students an extra $5 or so per month, it wouldn’t make a huge difference for them either.

Learning in college nowadays is usually challenging. The rising price of education is making many Americans find it difficult to manage their money. The U. S. government seeks to address this need of countless American households to supply education for his or her children after high school through a program which offers direct loans to students to cover their college training.

Technically, there has to be an interest rate on Direct Loans or else the Federal Government would not be receiving any money at all in return. However, the problem with debt and defaults has become such a problem that lowering the interest back to its record low points is certainly something to consider.

For more information on student loans and to receive updates about news regarding student loans, log onto www.afbcenter.com to get the scoop from American Financial Benefits Center today!

Get excellent information on .Visit to know more about American Financial Benefits Center.

The Role of Interest Rates on Forex Market

One of the most popular trading places in the world is Forex market. It is made for the currency exchange that is the main form of trade there. Forex market is opened for all comers, each one can start trading there having only $300 deposit. The most of people are attracted to this market due to its high liquidity and huge leverage that give ability to make big profits having small funds. To make it real, first you need to learn Forex basics and factors that form the situation on the market. One of such basics is interest rates.

The main index on the Forex market is currently price. Interest rate is another index that directly influences on the currency price. It is not hard to understand how interest rates influence the forming of currency prices. Among price forming factors there are also politic and economic events in the world, but the interest rate is the weightiest factor. When the interest rate to a specific currency grows, investors are capitalizing the returns from it and there will be a new money flow into the specific country, where the interest Forex rate is high. The currency becomes stronger when the countrys interest rate becomes higher. This is because such currency seems more profitable for Forex brokers and individual investors.

From time to time the government of specific country may interfere into the Forex market by flooding it with their domestic currency. This will lead to the currency price lowering. If the government purchase a lot of its domestic currency, taking it away from the Forex market, this means it is intended to rise its price and increase the interest rate of it. This approach is called Central Bank Intervention. Governments sometimes use it to help their domestic economy. This has positive effect on the Forex, however such cases happen rarely and do not break the market conditions, it even rises the Forex attractiveness, as big players enter the game.

Any interfering into the natural market functioning doesnt have long effect. Interest rate changes may influence on the currency price, but this influence is noticeable only in a short-term outlook. The Forex is too large to be controlled only by restricting the interest rates. There are a lot of other factors that form Forex online marketplace. But in a short-term trading tracking the changes in interest rates is one of the methods to predict low-risk, profitable investments.